BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Wyoming has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+142%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Wyoming: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Wyoming is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.8–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Wyoming is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.8–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.64.8
20263.31.74.9
20273.31.74.9
20283.31.74.9
20293.41.85.0

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lingle4420241980
Midvale2720241987
Arvada2420241982
Bill1920181993
Redbird1319891968
Yoder1320241969
Chugwater1320241979
Hampshire1220241995
Otto1120241970
Pine Bluff1020241979
Lusk920241988
Ethete720241991
Lysite720241990
Seely620001991
Wyarno520241974
Raven520241996
Elk Horn420151990
Upton420241988
Worland420241992
Mayoworth420241982
Carter 2420242024
Basin320241971
Ervay320122011
Frannie320241991
Schoonover320241982

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.