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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Kansas is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Kansas is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.70.139.3
20274.40.009.0
20284.10.008.7
20293.80.008.4
20303.60.008.1

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plymell3420252000
Albert2420251967
Lakin2320221967
Ruleton2220221981
Missler2120191975
Wellington2020251968
Hodges1620142000
Gray1420191967
Leoville1420181967
Damar1420162000
Gove1320221972
Hopewell1320182000
Beloit 21220182005
St John1120191967
Jewell1120051967
Beloit1120032000
Berwet1020252000
Ash Valley1020192000
Grigston1020242000
Hays920141967
Minneapolis920191967
Phillipsburg920251967
Leoti920222000
Ashland820211969
Chapman619811967

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowalouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.