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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Utah has surged: up 228% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+228%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Utah: up 228% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 0.53–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 0.53–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.00.439.6
20265.00.469.6
20275.10.489.6
20285.10.509.7
20295.10.539.7

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goshen4020241968
Wellington 22720112003
Oak City2320241979
Delta2120241987
Kamas2120241997
Wellington2120021997
Leamington1820171992
Wellington 31720242012
Grouse Creek1520101982
Fairfield1520241987
Jensen1420241992
Shivwitz1420241992
Promontory1220241970
Castleton1219851969
Randolph1020241992
Aneth920241986
Bear River920231992
Moab920241986
Grantsville920242001
Moquith Mtn820191987
Hanna820241999
Timpie Spg720031978
Iron Springs720231979
Newcastle620221997
Iron Springs 2520242024

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatennesseetexaswashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.