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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Utah has surged: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+235%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Western Kingbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Utah: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Kingbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Utah is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 0.55–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Utah is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 0.55–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.00.469.5
20275.00.489.6
20285.00.509.6
20295.10.529.6
20305.10.559.6

Western Kingbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goshen5320251968
Delta2920251987
Kamas2820251997
Wellington 22720112003
Oak City2320241979
Wellington2120021997
Jensen1920251992
Leamington1820171992
Grouse Creek1520101982
Fairfield1520241987
Grantsville1420252001
Bear River1320251992
Castleton1219851969
Fayette1120251994
Wellington 31020252012
Promontory1020251970
Vernon920251992
Beaver820251971
Moquith Mtn820191987
Shivwitz820251992
Moab820251986
Hanna820241999
Timpie Spg720031978
Iron Springs720231979
Notom720251993

Western Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.