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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Oregon has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+157%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hammond's Flycatcher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Oregon: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.13.8
20272.51.23.8
20282.51.23.8
20292.51.23.8
20302.51.23.8

Hammond's Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hells Canyon4220251992
Black Mtn.2120041996
Donelly 21920252018
Waldport1819991993
Eagle Creek1820251993
Molalla1720251994
Newbridge1620251994
Shellrock1520241968
Blue River1320251992
Klickitat Mt1319961993
Cool Camp1220131968
Ochoco1220251993
Summit Pr920251984
Wickiup820251969
Silver Creek820251984
Fisher820101997
Harlan 2820252011
Dell Spring719991972
Lorane720251994
Logdell620251971
Clearwater620211991
Unity620251992
Ruch620251992
Donnelly620061995
Santiam620251994

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.