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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Utah has surged: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+234%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hammond's Flycatcher Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Utah: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Utah is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.09–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Utah is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.09–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.070.46
20260.270.080.47
20270.270.080.47
20280.280.080.47
20290.280.090.47

Hammond's Flycatcher Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moon Lake 2920232004
Grizzly Rdge720241998
Lost Cr. Res320161995
Soapstone320241992
Logan Canyon220192000
M Warner Res220222022
Skyline Driv220161987
Uintah Nf219931993
La Sal 3220222008
Beck119861986
Oak City120052005
Red Spur Mtn.120231999
Bryce Canyon120242005
Woodruff120242004
Beaver120211980
Moon Lake120032002
Richfield120001997
Gooseberry120221997
La Sal119961994
Beck 2120001994
Hanna120231997
Ferron120222000
Heber Mtn.120241996
Wasatch Nf120242004

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.