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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Montana has surged: up 351% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+351%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hammond's Flycatcher Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Montana: up 351% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.13.7
20262.41.13.7
20272.41.23.7
20282.51.23.7
20292.51.23.7

Hammond's Flycatcher Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Creek2920241995
Noxon2320231995
Thompson Riv2220241993
St Regis1820241977
Clinton1520241975
Whitefish Lake1420242016
Libby Dam1320241979
Woodman1320241968
Painted Rock1220221992
Arlee1020241968
Skalkho-Rye1020222002
Swan Lake1020242015
Logan Pass820241980
Ninemile820241993
Hebgen Lake720242018
Lima620191996
Boulder519891976
Cramer Creek420191995
Elevation Mt420241995
Inside Road420241990
Elliston320241976
Sula320241977
Kalispell220241978
Victor220241993
Greenough220041995

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.