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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Montana has surged: up 314% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+314%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hammond's Flycatcher Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Montana: up 314% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.31.13.6
20272.41.13.6
20282.41.13.7
20292.41.13.7
20302.41.13.7

Hammond's Flycatcher Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Regis3720251977
Fish Creek2920241995
Woodman2320251968
Noxon2320231995
Thompson Riv2220241993
Clinton1420251975
Whitefish Lake1420242016
Libby Dam1320241979
Painted Rock1220221992
Skalkho-Rye1020222002
Swan Lake1020252015
Ninemile1020251993
Logan Pass820241980
Threemile Wa620251993
Hebgen Lake620252018
Lima620191996
Boulder519891976
Cramer Creek420191995
Elevation Mt420251995
Inside Road420251990
Pryor Mtn.320251995
Sula320241977
Greenough220041995
East Glacier Park220192015
Philipsburg220242016

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.