BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Washington

All statesAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Washington has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+152%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hammond's Flycatcher Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Washington: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.5 (95% range 4.0–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.5 (95% range 4.0–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.23.86.7
20265.33.86.7
20275.43.96.8
20285.44.06.9
20295.54.06.9

Hammond's Flycatcher Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newhalem3020241972
Cusick2820241987
Sullivan Lake 22520242000
Glacier2420241976
Blewett Pass2420241992
Sullivan Lk2319991999
No Cascades1920191988
Cougar1820231970
Ronald1820241973
Rimrock1720241968
E. Mt. Adams1720241995
Omak Creek1720241996
Greenwater1220242015
Cloverland1120241993
Hurricane Rg1020241992
Mazama1020221993
Winthrop920221983
Packwood920241975
White Chuck920241992
L Pend O Nwr820241995
Deer Park820121994
Montesand720241992
Mt St Helens720241992
Kendall620241981
Index 2620232014

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananew-mexicooregonutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.