BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Washington

All statesAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Washington has surged: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+194%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hammond's Flycatcher Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Washington: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Washington is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 4.2–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Washington is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 4.2–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.43.96.8
20275.44.06.9
20285.54.07.0
20295.64.17.0
20305.64.27.1

Hammond's Flycatcher Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blewett Pass4620251992
Newhalem3020251972
Cusick2820251987
Sullivan Lake 22420252000
Glacier2420241976
Sullivan Lk2319991999
No Cascades1920191988
Cougar1820231970
Ronald1820251973
Omak Creek1720241996
Rimrock1620251968
Packwood1520251975
E. Mt. Adams1420251995
Hurricane Rg1320251992
Greenwater1320252015
White Chuck1220251992
Spring Lake1020251982
Mazama1020221993
Laurier1020251998
Winthrop920221983
Twin Lakes920251983
L Pend O Nwr820241995
Northport820251996
L. Wenatchee820251994
Deer Park820121994

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananew-mexicooregonutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.