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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Alaska

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Hammond's Flycatcher in Alaska has surged: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+138%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hammond's Flycatcher Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Alaska: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Alaska is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 0.76 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.38–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Alaska is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 0.76 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.38–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.351.8
20271.10.361.8
20281.10.361.8
20291.10.371.8
20301.10.381.8

Hammond's Flycatcher Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chena Hot Spring 21220251999
Chicken1220251992
Chena River1119881988
Hyder820092003
Eagle720251991
Hather Creek420132000
Kanuti Canyn420241998
Kenny Lake420252015
Livengood320192015
Haines320251989
Birch Lake220251968
Northway220232023
Toklat219931993
Donelly Dome220182002
Mcgrath219991999
Manley Ht Sp220211993
Murphy Dome220241994
Zimovia Strt220151989
Circle120251987
Chatanika R120251992
Nabesna Road120032003
Kuskulana120242018
Tower Bluffs120231997
Mccarthy Rd2120231997
Stikine River120222007

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.