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Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Idaho

All statesAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Idaho has surged: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+139%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hammond's Flycatcher Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has surged in Idaho: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Idaho is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.5–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Idaho is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.5–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.92.25.6
20274.02.35.6
20284.02.45.7
20294.12.45.7
20304.12.55.8

Hammond's Flycatcher Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N Fork Cda R4020191993
Mivoden3520251977
Centerville2920251972
Marble Creek2420251988
Sunbeam2020251995
Coolin1920251988
Cobalt1920251991
Deep Creek1719851985
Rochat Divde1720251993
Avery1320251979
Naples1120251972
Pierce1020071990
Silver City1019931989
Cabarton820241986
Nezperce720121985
Golden620161987
Cascade519841983
Cape Horn420251972
Challis420251986
Baldy Mountain420162013
Salmon River420251988
Mud Lake420082008
Lolo Pass320191992
Grangeville320241989
Squirrel320251994

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradomontananew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.