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Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Idaho

All statesAerial insectivores

Hammond's Flycatcher in Idaho has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+61%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hammond's Flycatcher Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has risen sharply in Idaho: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Idaho is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.1–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in Idaho is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.1–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.51.95.1
20263.62.05.2
20273.62.05.2
20283.72.15.3
20293.72.15.3

Hammond's Flycatcher Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mivoden4420231977
N Fork Cda R4020191993
Marble Creek2920231988
Deep Creek1719851985
Coolin1620241988
Centerville1420191972
Cobalt1320241991
Cabarton1320231986
Naples1120241972
Pierce1020071990
Silver City1019931989
Avery920231979
Challis820241986
Rochat Divde820231993
Nezperce720121985
Golden620161987
Cascade519841983
Salmon River520181988
Cape Horn420241972
Baldy Mountain420162013
Mud Lake420082008
Lolo Pass320191992
Grangeville320241989
Alturas319871987
Gifford220161972

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradomontananew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.