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Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

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Hammond's Flycatcher in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+62%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hammond's Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hammond's Flycatcher has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.02–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hammond's Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.02–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.010.38
20260.200.010.39
20270.200.010.39
20280.200.020.39
20290.200.020.39

Hammond's Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Hammond's Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vallecitos920241994
Bluewater Lake320212004
Cebolla220221977
Angel Fire220021992
Mt. Taylor 2220242024
Ojo Sarco120211968
Reserve119971997
Capitan Mtn.120031998
Angel Fire 2120242005
Gallinas120241992

Hammond's Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.