BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive-sided Flycatcher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Olive-sided Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.3
20261.10.003.2
20271.10.003.1
20281.00.003.1
20290.950.003.0

Olive-sided Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Davis Lake1820242000
Paunina1520241993
Paisley1320241973
Sisters1120241997
Chinchalo1120241993
Cinderella1020241993
Secret Val920221975
Black Mtn.820041993
Cool Camp720131968
Svensen719921990
Elk Lake720241972
Prospect720241993
Lakeview720241996
Wizard Falls620241998
Winberry520181968
Dell Spring519991968
Clearwater520211991
Modoc Point 2520242024
Desolation520071993
Riley Peak520151994
Harlan 2520242011
Timber420171968
Logdell419721971
Days Creek420241970
Bly420011973

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.