BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in New Mexico has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+42%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive-sided Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive-sided Flycatcher in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.01–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.01–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.010.23
20260.120.010.23
20270.120.010.23
20280.120.010.23
20290.120.010.23

Olive-sided Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire 2320242005
Horse Mtn220051968
Cloudcroft220161982
Cebolla120191982
Ojo Sarco120231972
Reserve120161993
Vicks Peak120032003
Bluewater Lake120212003
Emory Pass120102010
Gallinas120241992
Stinking Lk.119941994
Angel Fire120021994
Claunch 2120142002
Mcgaffey120122012
Vallecitos120241994

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.