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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Utah has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-77%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive-sided Flycatcher Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Olive-sided Flycatcher has collapsed in Utah: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Utah is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Utah is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.42
20260.070.000.41
20270.060.000.40
20280.040.000.39
20290.030.000.38

Olive-sided Flycatcher Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dixie Nf620241996
Cleveland619921992
Navajo Lake320241968
Uintah Nf319941987
Moon Lake 2220212013
Beck219871986
Lost Cr. Res220151995
Bryce Canyon220241993
Moon Lake219981993
La Sal220001993
Hatch220111994
Ferron220142001
Main Canyon220221988
Timpie Spg119951995
Grizzly Rdge120021986
Logan Canyon120121997
Red Spur Mtn.120231997
La Sal 2120042003
Woodruff120242002
Beaver120241968
Canyonlands120011991
Aneth120092009
Soapstone120241992
Fayette120072007
Skyline Driv119991986

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.