BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Arizona has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+31%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive-sided Flycatcher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive-sided Flycatcher in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±146.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.47
20260.210.000.47
20270.210.000.47
20280.210.000.47
20290.210.000.47

Olive-sided Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawmill1419921989
Alpine1320231992
Blue319881974
Dragoon220042002
Sprucedale220231992
Portal120052005
Rucker119971997
Yampai119731973
Flagstaff120221988
Mormon Lake119751968
Dry Park120231993
Williams120172001
Maine120062006
Forest Lakes120001996
Pinetop119941994
Mt. Graham120212002
Tsaile120061993
Happy Jack120241986
Carr Mtn120172017

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.