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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Alaska

All statesAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Alaska has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+107%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive-sided Flycatcher Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Olive-sided Flycatcher has surged in Alaska: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Alaska is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.88–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Alaska is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.88–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.883.0
20261.90.883.0
20271.90.883.0
20281.90.883.0
20291.90.883.0

Olive-sided Flycatcher Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanuti Lake2020242006
Hoonah1120241993
Bear Creek919911986
Circle820241986
L Salcha820231985
Mitkof Isle820131988
Seven Lakes820231986
Coldfoot820211994
Chichagof Is820241994
Chistochina720221990
Swan Lake Rd720231982
Northway620231989
Goose Bay619821975
Kalifonsky620231982
Petersburg619871987
Nabesna Road620211990
Unalakleet River620241997
Skilak Lake519851982
Tonsina520212014
Nicholai Sl520241993
Manley Ht Sp520221993
Anvik River520221999
Eagle420241991
Homer419821982
Elmendorf (Short)419851984

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.