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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Michigan has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive-sided Flycatcher Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive-sided Flycatcher in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.21
20260.100.000.21
20270.100.000.21
20280.100.000.21
20290.100.000.21

Olive-sided Flycatcher Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seney Nwr320241992
Gooseneck320092009
Lake City319861986
Sand Lake219881984
Ontonagon120172017
Bergland120191982
Marenisco120161981
Bootjack119981998
Ned Lake120221986
Herman119841983
Imp Lake120121993
Gibbs City120111979
Maple Grove119931971
Ishpeming120211980
Brocky Lake120161980
Pine River120211992
Cunard120141974
Shingleton120021977
Creighton119931989
Isabella119841966
Betchler Lks120221992
Sidnaw120161994
Scott'S Marsh120102007
Cluster Lakes120092006
Ensign120092007

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.