BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Minnesota has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive-sided Flycatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive-sided Flycatcher in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.29
20260.070.000.28
20270.070.000.28
20280.070.000.28
20290.060.000.27

Olive-sided Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherry Lake420181969
Hovland319891976
Bemidji319801979
Greenbush320082008
Island Lake219841978
Badger220132013
Chisholm220242024
Hartland120011999
Sherburne Nr120112011
Tamarac Nwr120051996
Cass Lake120141980
Nebish120141982
Princeton120152013
Knapp120112011
Cromwell120231972
Wigwam Bay119931974
Mille Lacs120131994
Backus119991974
Pine River119831972
Edwards119941994
Lockport120071967
Sawbill Lndg120231973
Hart Lake119961969
Floodwood120241979
Cohasset120122012

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.