BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in New York has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive-sided Flycatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Olive-sided Flycatcher has fallen sharply in New York: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.08
20260.000.000.08
20270.000.000.08
20280.000.000.08
20290.000.000.08

Olive-sided Flycatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Regis Fls220171976
Underwood219861970
Horseshoe L.120171997
Mckeever119871980
Highmarket119781978
Number Four119711967
N Wilmurt119731969
Blue Ridge N120241969
Old Forge119911974
Blue Ridge S119961969
Newcomb119911971
Speculator119911966
Hope Falls119911968
Inlet120021979
North River119811967
S Horicon120061968
Warrensburg119901967
Degrasse119831980
Wanakena120241980
Dexter Lake119751968
Gabriels120171975
Sabattis119831966
Tupper Lake119721968
West Bangor119991998
Dannemora120011996

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.