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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Montana has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+5%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive-sided Flycatcher Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive-sided Flycatcher in Montana. See the full index history below.

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.42–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+108%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.42–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.840.391.3
20270.850.401.3
20280.860.401.3
20290.870.411.3
20300.880.421.3

Olive-sided Flycatcher Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sula820241977
Skalkaho719981992
Hebgen Lake720252017
Whitefish Lake520242016
Libby Dam420151979
Logan Pass420251980
Threemile Wa420251993
Greenough420041996
Victor320251993
Pryor Mtn.320182000
Greenoagh 2320112005
Pagil Gulch320252016
Painted Rock320221992
St Regis220251978
Woodman220251968
Inside Road220241990
Chestnut220181968
Red Rock220241990
Skalkho-Rye220221999
Swan Lake220252015
Wise River220251994
Noxon220231998
Flatwillow 2120142014
Cramer Creek120192003
Glen120082008

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.