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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Montana has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive-sided Flycatcher Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive-sided Flycatcher in Montana. See the full index history below.

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.46–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.46–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.870.421.3
20260.880.431.3
20270.890.441.3
20280.900.451.3
20290.910.461.4

Olive-sided Flycatcher Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sula820241977
Arlee720241968
Skalkaho719981992
Swan Lake620242015
Hebgen Lake620242017
Whitefish Lake520242016
Libby Dam420151979
Greenough420041996
Logan Pass320241980
Pryor Mtn.320182000
Woodman320241968
Greenoagh 2320112005
Painted Rock320221992
Victor220151993
Threemile Wa220241993
Inside Road220241990
Chestnut220181968
Red Rock220241990
Skalkho-Rye220221999
Greenoagh 3220242012
Clancy220222016
Pagil Gulch220222016
Noxon220231998
Flatwillow 2120142014
Cramer Creek120192003

Olive-sided Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.