BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in Oregon has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-91%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Swift Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Swift has collapsed in Oregon: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

White-throated Swift Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.020.000.98
20240.000.000.96
20250.000.000.96
20260.000.000.96
20270.000.000.96

White-throated Swift Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording White-throated Swift in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Adrian2720211984
Catlow Rim220192019
Madras220012001
Alvord Lake220092009
Three Forks120112011
Warner Vally119951995
Bridgeport120221986

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.