BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in Arizona has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Swift Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-throated Swift in Arizona. See the full index history below.

White-throated Swift Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Arizona is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Arizona is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.003.0
20271.20.003.0
20281.10.002.9
20291.10.002.9
20301.10.002.9

White-throated Swift Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording White-throated Swift in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dateland8220161996
Squaw Peak3519701970
Portal2120251975
Mormon Lake1919741968
Cutter 21320182015
Carr Mtn1120251985
Many Farms1020052005
Round Rock919761968
Greasewood819931993
Cutter820142014
Florence719711971
Yampai619711969
Quartzsite620251985
San Simon620171970
Antares620022002
Ajo 2620222012
Dry Park520252000
Bartlett Res520152002
Blue419901975
Sahuarita420231993
Hunt319761976
Vicksburg319881988
Ajo320011976
Sunizona319971973
Riviera320251992

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.