BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in Utah has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-71%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Swift Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Swift has fallen sharply in Utah: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

White-throated Swift Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.004.8
20271.30.004.7
20281.20.004.7
20291.20.004.6
20301.10.004.6

White-throated Swift Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording White-throated Swift in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arches Np9620111989
La Sal3619991996
Wellington3220021997
Castleton2919851977
Moab2920251986
Main Canyon1420251989
Gilson Butte1220042000
Canyonlands1120061991
Cleveland1120241994
Canyonlands1020221986
Boulder720251974
Hite720211986
Shivwitz720251992
Hanksville620101996
Kamas620182015
Hardware Ranch620182018
Beaver520251971
Navajo Lake520021968
Cane Spr Des519971994
Lost Cr. Res320152015
Altonah319781971
Bryce Canyon320251990
Aneth320141986
Hatch320242000
Canyon Rims320252001

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.