BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Swift

ApodidaeAerial insectivoresAeronautes saxatalis

White-throated Swift has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
467RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the White-throated Swift

The White-throated Swift (Aeronautes saxatalis) is a North American member of the Swifts (Apodidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–7 in long (12–18 cm) — a small aerial bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 467 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 14 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Apodidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable White-throated Swift TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Swift has surged in surveyed states: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-throated Swift Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.09–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.09–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.090.44
20260.270.090.44
20270.270.090.44
20280.270.090.44
20290.270.090.44

Where the White-throated Swift Is Detected

BBS routes recording White-throated Swift, sized by most recent count.

White-throated Swift Population Trend by State

White-throated Swift population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-39%197057
California-57%1970136
Colorado+244%197359
Idaho+2%19909
Montana+179%197316
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a3
Nevada+38%198520
New Mexico+16%197333
Oregon-91%19867
South Dakota+105%196915
Texas-94%197014
Utah-75%197254
Washington+62%198412
Wyoming+621%198032

White-throated Swift Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

White-throated Swift population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-76%19817
Great Basin+264%197544
Northern Rockies+256%197339
Sierra Nevada-64%197419
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-16%1970144
Badlands and Prairies+133%196926
Shortgrass Prairie-52%19838
Coastal California-72%197075
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-92%197058
Sierra Madre Occidental+37%197024
Chihuahuan Desert-94%197023

White-throated Swift Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 93% since 1969. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.