BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Swift In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-76%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Swift has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

White-throated Swift In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.10
20250.010.000.10
20260.010.000.10
20270.010.000.10
20280.010.000.10

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording White-throated Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LongvaleCALIFORNIA32023
AlderpointCALIFORNIA32011
HolmesCALIFORNIA22022
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA12004
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA11990
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA11985
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.