BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Swift In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in Coastal California has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Swift has fallen sharply in Coastal California: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-throated Swift In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Coastal California is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Coastal California is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.002.6
20260.610.002.5
20270.590.002.5
20280.560.002.5
20290.540.002.5

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording White-throated Swift in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA262017
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA202019
El ToroCALIFORNIA151999
CoyoteCALIFORNIA152024
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA132024
San YsidroCALIFORNIA102019
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA101980
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA91981
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA92015
RiovistaCALIFORNIA82019
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA82022
WestleyCALIFORNIA82019
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA72022
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA71974
CrestonCALIFORNIA72024
San Benito Mtn.CALIFORNIA72009
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA62016
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA62024
CoalingaCALIFORNIA52002
PowayCALIFORNIA51980
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA52017
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA52024
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA52024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA52010
Red BluffCALIFORNIA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.