BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Swift In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in Great Basin has surged: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+264%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Swift has surged in Great Basin: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

White-throated Swift In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Great Basin is projected to rise about 306% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±189.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+306%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±189.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Great Basin is projected to rise about 306% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±189.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.001.5
20260.650.001.5
20270.660.001.5
20280.660.001.6
20290.670.001.6

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording White-throated Swift in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AdrianOREGON272021
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON272023
Meadow VallyNEVADA162024
Comins LakeNEVADA112009
AlmoIDAHO62021
Humboldt NfNEVADA62006
Hardware RanchUTAH62018
HarringtonWASHINGTON62012
Calico SprNEVADA51974
Magic MtnIDAHO42024
MoraIDAHO42022
Ruby ValleyNEVADA42001
SnowdenWASHINGTON41994
WinthropWASHINGTON41983
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON42002
Big PineCALIFORNIA32007
DorrisCALIFORNIA32019
LeadoreIDAHO32010
Bald Mtn.NEVADA32024
Virgin CreekNEVADA32018
EllensburgWASHINGTON31984
YakimaWASHINGTON32004
WillisNEVADA22005
HikoNEVADA22009
JarbidgeNEVADA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.