BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Swift Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in New Mexico has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+16%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Swift Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-throated Swift in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

White-throated Swift Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in New Mexico is projected to rise about 62% by 2028 — from 0.20 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±156.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±156.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in New Mexico is projected to rise about 62% by 2028 — from 0.20 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±156.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.320.000.72
20250.320.000.72
20260.320.000.72
20270.320.000.72
20280.320.000.72

White-throated Swift Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording White-throated Swift in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hatchet Peak820231996
Vicks Peak720221994
Sabinoso420211980
Valencia319941994
Angel Fire 2320212006
Cloudcroft320211977
Counselor320191992
Farmington219801980
Stinking Lk.219971995
Mcgaffey220031994
Vallecitos220161994
Gallinas220101993
Emory Pass220151993
Queen220152003
Aztec219881988
Bluewater Lake220161999
Nageesi119931993
Cebolla120131973
Crownpoint119891969
Torreon120211975
La Cienega120162005
Dulce120082008
Jornada120192001
Mt. Taylor 2120162016
Rodeo119941994

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.