BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in Nevada has surged: up 284% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+284%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Swift Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Swift has surged in Nevada: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

White-throated Swift Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Nevada is projected to fall about 67% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Nevada is projected to fall about 67% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.002.4
20271.00.002.4
20281.00.002.4
20291.10.002.4
20301.10.002.5

White-throated Swift Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording White-throated Swift in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow Vally6420251996
Comins Lake1120092009
Humboldt Nf620062006
Calico Spr519741974
Val Of Fire420251985
Ruby Valley420012001
Virgin Creek320181995
Bald Mtn.320242024
Austin220102010
Willis220051995
Hiko220091993
Jean Lake220081993
Nelson220161995
Jarbidge220142006
Desert Nwr120182018
Sand Pass119961996
Ash Meadows120231993
Dobbin Creek119951995
Beatty120161994
Alamo119691969

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.