BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in Texas has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-94%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-throated Swift Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Swift has collapsed in Texas: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-throated Swift Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±162.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.23
20260.020.000.23
20270.010.000.23
20280.010.000.22
20290.010.000.22

White-throated Swift Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording White-throated Swift in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear Mtn2120111988
Hot Springs920061998
Slaughter519991968
Valentine519871969
Sierra Blanc220051999
Delaware Crk219711971
Salt Flat120062003
Chisos Basin120241995
Toyahvale119981998
Canutillo120091994
Black Gap120112011
Casa Piedra119921992
Cornudas119701970
Castolon120241998

White-throated Swift Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.