BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-throated Swift In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+198%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-throated Swift has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-throated Swift In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.15–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±129%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.15–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.930.131.7
20270.940.141.7
20280.940.141.7
20290.940.141.7
20300.950.151.7

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording White-throated Swift in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoskeeWYOMING442001
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA421997
Moskee 3WYOMING412025
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA201999
Bull Mtn.MONTANA142009
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA92001
Teapot DomeWYOMING91989
Moskee 2WYOMING92021
BucknumWYOMING81995
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA72025
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA72004
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA32006
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
BrandenbergMONTANA22019
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA22022
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA21981
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA22003
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA21995
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING22015
ShawmutMONTANA12024
Reed PointMONTANA12010
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA11991
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.