BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-throated Swift In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

White-throated Swift in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 37% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+37%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-throated Swift in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-throated Swift in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.005.0
20261.90.004.9
20271.90.004.9
20281.90.004.9
20291.90.004.9

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording White-throated Swift in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mormon LakeARIZONA191974
PomereneARIZONA142024
PortalARIZONA142024
CutterARIZONA82014
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO72022
San SimonARIZONA62017
Bartlett ResARIZONA52015
BlueARIZONA41990
Forest LakesARIZONA42024
SahuaritaARIZONA42023
Carr MtnARIZONA42023
SunizonaARIZONA31997
RedingtonARIZONA32023
SprucedaleARIZONA32023
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
PatagoniaARIZONA22018
Mt. GrahamARIZONA22023
McnealARIZONA22004
DragoonARIZONA22007
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO22015
Peña BlancaARIZONA12023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12013
RuckerARIZONA12001
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.