BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Oregon has surged: up 195% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+195%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Oregon: up 195% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.50 (95% range 0.11–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.50 (95% range 0.11–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.090.87
20260.490.090.88
20270.490.100.88
20280.490.100.88
20290.500.110.89

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bridgeport620221986
Twickenham620242012
Lone Rock520241968
Deschutes520241980
Eightmile520241982
Pendleton520241979
Donnybrook519971997
Princeton419851972
Zumwalt320051995
Sparta320011979
Harney Lake320241995
Monument320241993
Silvies319941994
Three Forks220182003
Wickiup219931991
Crowley220241989
Malheur Nwr220221986
Montague220241975
Mount Vernon220191988
Silver Creek220072005
Adrian220211984
Blizzard Gap220151995
Newbridge220241993
Green Mtn.220221999
Bowden Hills219991999

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.