BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Oregon has surged: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+221%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Oregon: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.50 (95% range 0.12–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.50 (95% range 0.12–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.100.88
20270.490.100.88
20280.490.110.88
20290.500.110.89
20300.500.120.89

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Twickenham820252012
Lone Rock520241968
Montague520251975
Donnybrook519971997
Eightmile420251982
Pendleton420251979
Princeton419851972
Madras420251997
Zumwalt320051995
Bridgeport320251986
Harney Lake320241995
Monument320251993
Silvies319941994
Three Forks220252003
Albee220251969
Wickiup219931991
Crowley220241989
Malheur Nwr220221986
Sparta220251979
Mount Vernon220191988
Silver Creek220072005
Adrian220251984
Blizzard Gap220151995
Cecil220252017
Newbridge220241993

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.