BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Utah has surged: up 324% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+324%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Utah: up 323% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Utah is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.2–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Utah is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.2–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.13.4
20262.31.13.4
20272.31.13.5
20282.31.23.5
20292.41.23.5

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hatch1320241994
Aneth1220241986
Bonanza920151992
Jensen720241992
Westwater720241997
Tule Valley720112003
Arches Np620111989
Newcastle520221997
Monticello520241998
Goshen420241992
Desert View420241993
Hite420231992
Glen Canyon420241992
Randolph420241992
Vernon420241992
Vernal420182003
Crawford Mts420102005
Timpie Spg320031980
Willow Creek320241995
Hanksville320241993
Notom320241987
Main Canyon320241987
Indian Peak320131999
Glen Canyon320241993
Lake Powell320071997

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.