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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Utah has surged: up 350% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+350%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Utah: up 349% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Utah is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.2–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Utah is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.2–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.13.4
20272.31.13.4
20282.31.13.5
20292.31.23.5
20302.41.23.5

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hatch2220251994
Moab1220251986
Jensen1020251992
Cleveland920251994
Bonanza920151992
Westwater720251997
Tule Valley720112003
Canyonlands620251986
Arches Np620111989
Blanding520251990
Newcastle520221997
Hite420251992
Gold Hill420251987
Notom420251987
Shivwitz420251992
Vernal420182003
Escalante420251998
Crawford Mts420102005
Wellington 3320252012
Timpie Spg320031980
Willow Creek320241995
Hanksville320241993
Glen Canyon320251992
Main Canyon320241987
Indian Peak320131999

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.