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Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+5%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in New Mexico is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in New Mexico is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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20282.91.54.2
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20302.91.54.2

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Torreon1220251975
Pecos1020171973
San Antonio919771974
Variadero920221994
La Cienega820221968
Correo819821975
Angel Fire 2720252005
Maxwell620251996
Nageesi520251968
Horse Spgs520251975
Laborcita520191994
Farley420251979
Cloudcroft420251977
Stinking Lk.419991992
Raton419941994
Mcgaffey420231994
Gallinas420251992
Capitan Mtn.420171993
Newcomb420212021
Claunch 2420252001
Dulce420252000
Laborcita 2420252022
La Plata420131990
Salt Lake 2420252002
La Plata 2420162014

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.