BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in New Mexico has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 1.6–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 1.6–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.64.3
20262.91.64.3
20272.91.64.3
20282.91.64.3
20292.91.64.3

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pecos1020171973
Torreon920241975
San Antonio919771974
Variadero920221994
La Cienega820221968
Correo819821975
Counselor720241992
Escondida720241998
Nageesi620241968
Cloudcroft620241977
Rosebud620241994
Claunch 2620242001
Angel Fire 2620242005
Salt Lake 2620242002
Farley520241979
Carrizozo520241968
Laborcita520191994
Red Rock520241992
Laborcita 2520242022
Floyd420241991
Horse Spgs420241975
Gage420241968
Stinking Lk.419991992
Raton419941994
Mcgaffey420231994

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.