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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Alaska

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Alaska has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-99%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has collapsed in Alaska: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2019.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2019.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2019.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.0
20260.000.001.0
20270.000.001.0
20280.000.001.0
20290.000.001.0

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chistochina620082008
Cordova619961994
Tangle Lakes419871987
Skilak Lake319831978
Council320041996
Ft. Richrdsn320102010
Eagle220172007
Chatanika R220191992
Birch Lake220212021
Homer219781978
Mt. Fairplay220101997
Kuskulana119941994
Northway120172017
Maclaren120211982
Monahan120032003
Cantwell120142014
Mccarthy Rd2119961996
Toklat120081982
Burma Road119991999
Coldfoot120211994
Galbraith L.120222022
Happy Valley120132007
Salmon Lake120092004
Skagway120081994
Chena Hot Sp119901985

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.