BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Washington

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Washington has surged: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+168%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Washington: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Washington is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.78–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Washington is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.78–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.712.0
20261.40.732.0
20271.40.742.0
20281.40.762.0
20291.40.782.1

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Snowden1619711971
Nighthawk1120241992
Ewan 2920242023
Reardan720241977
L Pend O Nwr720241996
Walla Walla719931993
Twisp520241969
Ewan520191983
Ellensburg520241981
Moses Coulee520231994
Lake Chelan520241988
Asotin420241983
Chewelah320211999
Ardenvoir319861968
Bickleton320191983
Winthrop320221995
Wilbur320241984
Keystone320241994
Horn Rapids320182005
Pomeroy320241998
Odessa320241993
Deer Park320151994
Arid Land Er219961989
Harrington220051977
Pomona219991998

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.