BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Colorado

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Colorado has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 0.91–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 0.91–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.912.1
20271.50.912.1
20281.50.912.1
20291.50.912.1
20301.50.912.1

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kirk820232001
Doyle Bridge819971992
Black Sulphur Cr820252015
Last Chance 2720252017
Douglas Pass620241986
Gilpin620251970
Edison620251990
Cokedale620251995
Pritchett620251995
Adams Co.520221994
Bethune520151991
Lay520251996
Bennett520251995
Piceance Basin520121998
Ludlow520251998
Rockport520241994
Cortez 2520172009
Maybell420241972
Rush420251983
Falfa420251971
Cone Mtn420241988
Rosevale420252009
De Beque420251994
Paonia420251993
Flagler420252000

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.