BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Colorado

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Colorado has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+30%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Colorado is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.90–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.90–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Colorado is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.90–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.892.1
20261.50.892.1
20271.50.892.1
20281.50.892.1
20291.50.902.1

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elbert1020241999
Basin920241995
Trinchera820221990
Kirk820232001
Doyle Bridge819971992
Last Chance 2720242017
Douglas Pass620241986
Gilpin620241970
Cokedale620241995
Ludlow620161998
Black Sulphur Cr620242015
Doyle Bridge 2620231998
Briggsdale520241968
Rush520241983
Falfa520241971
Wray Gulch520231988
Adams Co.520221994
Bethune520151991
De Beque520241994
Paonia520241993
Yellowjacket Pass520241998
Piceance Basin520121998
Rockport520241994
Prospect Valley 2520232003
Cortez 2520172009

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniaidahoiowakansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.