BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Montana has surged: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+266%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Montana: up 265% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Montana is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.23–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Montana is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.23–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.810.211.4
20260.820.211.4
20270.820.221.4
20280.830.221.4
20290.830.231.4

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laurel1220221968
Forsyth820231988
Brandenberg620191969
Wheat Basin620242017
Reed Point520241978
Coleman Coulee520232017
Redstone420241978
Locate420171981
Whitlash420242009
Wolf Point420212015
Muddy Creek420152015
Hehn Draw420242016
Pryor Mtn.420181995
Glasgow320241980
Savage320211968
Ingomar320151970
Dinosaurs H.M.320242018
Lindsay320242015
Custer320222019
Chuffey Spring320242016
Custer 2320242024
Hay Lake220221990
Sunburst220071978
Harlem220181991
Leroy220241990

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.