BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Montana has surged: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+306%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Montana: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Montana is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.26–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Montana is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.26–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.840.241.4
20270.840.241.4
20280.850.251.5
20290.850.251.5
20300.860.261.5

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed Point920251978
Brandenberg920251969
Forsyth820231988
Miles City820252015
Shawmut520251979
Wheat Basin520252017
Locate420171981
Whitlash420242009
Wolf Point420212015
Jordan South420252016
Muddy Creek420152015
Hehn Draw420252016
Virgelle320251979
Glasgow320251980
Redstone320251978
Highwood320251968
Savage320211968
Laurel320251968
Glentana320252015
Lindsay320242015
Lambert320252021
Custer320222019
Coleman Coulee320242017
Chuffey Spring320242016
Sunburst220071978

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.