BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Nevada has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Nevada is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.47–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Nevada is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.47–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.432.1
20261.30.442.1
20271.30.452.1
20281.30.462.1
20291.30.472.1

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ruby Valley619991999
Jean Lake520101973
Oreana520032002
Toiyabe Nf420242002
Nelson420241995
Nixon420241974
Darroughs Hot Spgs420182016
Dobbin Creek320181972
Silver Peak320061972
Val Of Fire320241985
Ash Meadows320241993
Ruby Valley 2320192004
Meadow Vally320241996
Gardnerville 2320182014
Piute Mdws220242015
Calico Spr219731973
Dinner Sta219911969
Sutcliffe219721968
Sheldon Nwr220171992
Minerva219891988
Hiko220231968
Silver Peak 2220192018
Vya119731972
Midas120191996
Ranchogrande120232000

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.