BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Nevada has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+21%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Nevada is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.51–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Nevada is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.51–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.472.1
20271.30.482.1
20281.30.492.1
20291.30.502.2
20301.30.512.2

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sand Pass920251987
Meadow Vally720251996
Ruby Valley619991999
Jean Lake520101973
Oreana520032002
Gardnerville 2520252014
Toiyabe Nf420242002
Val Of Fire420251985
Nixon420241974
Darroughs Hot Spgs420182016
Dobbin Creek320181972
Silver Peak320061972
Nelson320251995
Ash Meadows320241993
Ruby Valley 2320192004
Piute Mdws220242015
Calico Spr219731973
Dinner Sta219911969
Sutcliffe219721968
Sheldon Nwr220171992
Minerva219891988
Hiko220231968
Caliente220252025
Bald Mtn.220251995
Silver Peak 2220192018

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.