BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Wyoming has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Wyoming is projected to fall about 82% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-82%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Wyoming is projected to fall about 82% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.410.003.6
20270.370.003.6
20280.330.003.5
20290.290.003.5
20300.250.003.5

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patrick Draw2019801974
Arvada1120251982
Natrona819921969
Schoonover820251982
Chugwater820241982
Nowood720251993
Wyarno620221976
Tensleep620251995
Upton620251987
Patrick Draw 2619831981
Recluse520251981
Teapot Dome519891981
Flamin Gorge520251988
Patrick Draw 6520132010
Gebo420251992
Mayoworth420241982
Sussex420251992
Sybille Cyn420252005
Rozet420251993
Seely 2420252003
Savageton420252025
Thunder Basin420252014
Bucknum420241993
Basin320251987
Dwyer320251996

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.