BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Wyoming has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Wyoming. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Wyoming is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Wyoming is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.003.6
20260.340.003.6
20270.290.003.5
20280.250.003.5
20290.210.003.4

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patrick Draw2019801974
Natrona819921969
Chugwater820241982
Caballa Crk820211996
Arvada720241982
Wyarno620221976
Dwyer620141996
Patrick Draw 2619831981
Nowood520241993
Recluse520241981
Gebo520241992
Teapot Dome519891981
Cheyenne520241983
Thunder Basin520242014
Patrick Draw 6520132010
Tensleep420241995
Upton420241987
Mayoworth420241982
Bucknum420241993
Cody320241993
Yoder320241995
Meeteetse320241991
Schoonover320241982
Lysite320171989
Highlight319941981

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.