BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in North Dakota has surged: up 385% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+385%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in North Dakota: up 385% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.75–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.75–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.75–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.691.7
20261.20.711.7
20271.20.721.7
20281.20.741.8
20291.30.751.8

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Golva720231979
Tobacco620191968
Bentley620241988
Dunn Center420241969
Lark419811968
Bowman420241968
Zap420241975
Dickinson320241968
Powers Lake320241990
Emerado220242006
Carpio220231967
Roosevelt Pk220191983
Cedar Creek220221969
Solen220242008
Forman120242013
Carson120241988
Edgeley120242010
Lake George120161992
Danzig120101992
Cooperstown120151991
Wimbledon120132013
Horsehead Lk120241982
Buchanan120211977
Nash119851985
Lakota119811981

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.