BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in South Dakota has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+365%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in South Dakota: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in South Dakota is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in South Dakota is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.000.92
20270.440.000.92
20280.440.000.92
20290.440.000.92
20300.440.000.92

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Promise720151996
Marcus620121999
Lodgepole420251995
Chamberlain320102010
Britton320192014
Harding320251973
S. Pioneer220121994
Crow Creek220112011
Wind Cave Np220222007
Forbes220252022
Ottumwa219801969
Badlands220251982
Tripp119871986
Pioneer120211992
Geddes119901990
Cottonwood120081992
Rockyford120251972
Indian120242003
Railroad Butte120001996
French Creek120001997
Gettysburg119941994
Long Lake120102002
Laplant119751975
Owanka119981967
Volunteer120191967

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.