BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Texas has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Texas. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.21 (95% range 0.09–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.21 (95% range 0.09–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.080.33
20270.210.080.33
20280.210.080.33
20290.210.090.33
20300.210.090.33

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skellytown520242008
Quitman Canyon 2420252010
Sierra Blanc420252003
Wink419751975
Lakeview419951995
Ft. Davis320252009
Toyahvale320251998
Delaware Crk320151971
Salt Flat320151995
Chisos Basin220251995
Marfa220252006
Van Horn220252017
Dove Mtn.220062003
Coyanda Draw220211995
Gainesville219711971
Black Gap220251988
Valentine219871969
Plains220192019
Circle220191968
Texline220231976
Booker220081992
Dougherty220182016
Plains220162007
Dalhart220191994
Tenmile220192002

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.