BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Oklahoma has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+137%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Oklahoma: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 122% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.05–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+122%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 122% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.05–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.030.43
20270.230.040.43
20280.240.040.43
20290.240.040.44
20300.250.050.44

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaver620181983
Felt420241969
Clear Lake320251994
Hardesty220241993
Keyes220231995
Rosston120181994
Hooker120222008
Cooperton120222022

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoiowakansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.