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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Oklahoma has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+144%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Oklahoma: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.06–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.06–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.040.43
20260.240.040.44
20270.240.050.44
20280.250.050.45
20290.260.060.45

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaver620181983
Clear Lake520241994
Felt420241969
Hardesty220241993
Keyes220231995
Rosston120181994
Hooker120222008
Cooperton120222022

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.