BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in California

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in California has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+73%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has risen sharply in California: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in California is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.28–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in California is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.28–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.500.250.75
20270.510.260.76
20280.510.270.76
20290.520.270.77
20300.520.280.77

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trona919971977
Joshua Tree920021970
Moreno820251977
Orange Cove820161979
Wildrose720221977
Lenwood720121973
Jacumba720251978
Palo Verde620252009
Kelso Valley620251979
Ravendale520241995
Anza 2520252005
Joshua Tree 2520252013
Eureka Val420251973
Tecopa420191979
Green Valley420221970
San Ysidro320191989
Darwin320051991
Elsinore Mtn320252021
Death Valley320231975
Anza320032003
Ventucopa320011972
Carrizo Pln320251977
Athlone319761975
Cholla Gard.320191995
South Lake320062006

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.