BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Arizona has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Arizona is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.95–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Arizona is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.95–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.903.0
20271.90.923.0
20282.00.933.0
20292.00.943.0
20302.00.953.0

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
The Gap819761968
Skull Valley 2820252025
Cutter 2720182015
Black Mesa619941988
Hunt620181968
New River620161990
Skull Valley620241996
Gila Bend620092004
Toroweap520211995
Page520191993
Round Rock419891968
Squaw Peak419691968
Pomerene420251969
Greasewood420031993
Pinetop420221993
Alpine420252004
Peach Spring420251992
Cactus Forest420251997
House Rock320191968
Vicksburg319891974
Alamo Res.320231992
Cutter320141992
Araby320221992
Red Rock320141993
Amado320251993

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.