BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Arizona has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Arizona is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.99–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Arizona is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.99–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.943.0
20262.00.953.0
20272.00.963.0
20282.00.983.0
20292.00.993.0

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
The Gap819761968
Cutter 2720182015
Black Mesa619941988
Hunt620181968
New River620161990
Skull Valley620241996
Gila Bend620092004
Redington620221993
Toroweap520211995
Page520191993
Peach Spring520241992
Round Rock419891968
Squaw Peak419691968
Riviera420241992
Greasewood420031993
Pinetop420221993
Alpine420232004
Amado420231993
Clay Spring420241988
Sprucedale420221992
House Rock320191968
Vicksburg319891974
Dateland320131991
Pomerene320241969
Castle Butte320061992

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.