Say's Phoebe
Say's Phoebe has surged: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
About the Say's Phoebe
The Say's Phoebe (Sayornis saya) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.
- Size
- 4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
- Diet
- Flying insects caught on the wing.
- Range
- Recorded on 1,144 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 19 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
- Family
- Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores
Notable Say's Phoebe Trends
Say's Phoebe has surged in surveyed states: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Say's Phoebe Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.37–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.46 | 0.34 | 0.57 |
| 2026 | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.57 |
| 2027 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.58 |
| 2028 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.58 |
| 2029 | 0.48 | 0.37 | 0.59 |
Where the Say's Phoebe Is Detected
BBS routes recording Say's Phoebe, sized by most recent count.
Say's Phoebe Population Trend by State
| Alaska | -99% | 1983 | 35 |
| Arizona | -16% | 1970 | 86 |
| California | +66% | 1970 | 112 |
| Colorado | +30% | 1970 | 135 |
| Idaho | +54% | 1973 | 34 |
| Iowa | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Kansas | +28% | 1969 | 25 |
| Montana | +266% | 1970 | 77 |
| Nebraska | +32% | 1971 | 34 |
| Nevada | -13% | 1970 | 48 |
| New Mexico | +19% | 1970 | 85 |
| North Dakota | +385% | 1969 | 42 |
| Oklahoma | +144% | 1983 | 8 |
| Oregon | +195% | 1970 | 59 |
| South Dakota | +287% | 1969 | 39 |
| Texas | -2% | 1969 | 61 |
| Utah | +324% | 1971 | 95 |
| Washington | +168% | 1970 | 62 |
| Wyoming | +19% | 1970 | 106 |
Say's Phoebe Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| BCR 4 | -95% | 1983 | 22 |
| Northern Pacific Rainforest | -36% | 1994 | 10 |
| Great Basin | +30% | 1970 | 199 |
| Northern Rockies | +220% | 1970 | 129 |
| Prairie Potholes | 11× | 1969 | 57 |
| Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau | +32% | 1970 | 201 |
| Badlands and Prairies | +233% | 1969 | 121 |
| Shortgrass Prairie | +46% | 1970 | 124 |
| Central Mixed Grass Prairie | +52% | 1969 | 44 |
| Coastal California | +102% | 1971 | 48 |
| Sonoran and Mojave Deserts | +19% | 1970 | 84 |
| Sierra Madre Occidental | -12% | 1970 | 34 |
| Chihuahuan Desert | +7% | 1969 | 53 |
Say's Phoebe Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it up about 294% since 1969. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.