BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Analysis

TyrannidaeAerial insectivoresSayornis saya

Say's Phoebe has surged: up 323% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+323%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,151RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Say's Phoebe

The Say's Phoebe (Sayornis saya) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 1,151 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 19 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Say's Phoebe TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in surveyed states: up 323% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.48 (95% range 0.37–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.48 (95% range 0.37–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.460.350.57
20270.470.360.58
20280.470.360.58
20290.480.370.59
20300.480.370.59

Where the Say's Phoebe Is Detected

BBS routes recording Say's Phoebe, sized by most recent count.

Say's Phoebe Population Trend by State

Say's Phoebe population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-99%198335
Arizona-22%197087
California+73%1970112
Colorado+26%1970135
Idaho+90%197334
Iowainsufficient datan/a1
Kansas+0%196925
Montana+306%197077
Nebraska+136%197136
Nevada+21%197049
New Mexico+5%197085
North Dakota+328%196942
Oklahoma+137%19838
Oregon+221%197060
South Dakota+365%196939
Texas+21%196961
Utah+350%197195
Washington+211%197062
Wyoming+40%1970108

Say's Phoebe Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Say's Phoebe population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4-95%198322
Northern Pacific Rainforest-34%199410
Great Basin+46%1970200
Northern Rockies+227%1970131
Prairie Potholes12×196957
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+29%1970201
Badlands and Prairies+266%1969122
Shortgrass Prairie+56%1970125
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+136%196945
Coastal California+110%197148
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+29%197084
Sierra Madre Occidental-23%197035
Chihuahuan Desert+6%196953

Say's Phoebe Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 323% since 1969. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.