BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has risen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Say's Phoebe In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.05–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±200%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±200%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.05–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±200%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.050.38
20260.220.050.38
20270.220.050.39
20280.220.050.39
20290.220.050.39

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StrattonNEBRASKA62024
BeaverOKLAHOMA62018
BrownleeNEBRASKA41996
LakeviewTEXAS41995
AshlandKANSAS32021
Jewell 2KANSAS22009
BradyNEBRASKA22017
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA22015
BookerTEXAS22008
St JohnKANSAS12004
CoatsKANSAS11989
ColdwaterKANSAS12011
AlbertKANSAS11996
GrayKANSAS12018
HaysKANSAS12005
LeovilleKANSAS12018
CovertKANSAS12024
JewellKANSAS12005
PhillipsburgKANSAS11998
LoganKANSAS12010
GoveKANSAS12022
MisslerKANSAS12019
DamarKANSAS12003
RexfordKANSAS12023
SumnerNEBRASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.