BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Coastal California has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+102%Since 1971
48Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Say's Phoebe has surged in Coastal California: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Coastal California is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.19–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029
0.47Projected 2029 index
0.19–0.7495% range
±43.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.440.160.71
20260.440.170.72
20270.450.170.73
20280.460.180.73
20290.470.190.74

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Coastal California.
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA82016
JacumbaCALIFORNIA72024
MorenoCALIFORNIA62024
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA62024
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA42022
Anza 2CALIFORNIA42024
San YsidroCALIFORNIA32019
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA32024
AnzaCALIFORNIA32003
VentucopaCALIFORNIA32001
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA32021
AthloneCALIFORNIA31976
South LakeCALIFORNIA32006
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA22024
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA22018
Cp. PendletonCALIFORNIA22004
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA22023
SangerCALIFORNIA22019
ArvinCALIFORNIA22018
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA21983
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA22022
TracyCALIFORNIA22006
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA22024
HughsonCALIFORNIA11981
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.