BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Coastal California has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+110%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Coastal California: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Say's Phoebe In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Coastal California is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.21–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Coastal California is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.21–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.180.76
20270.480.190.77
20280.480.200.77
20290.490.200.78
20300.500.210.79

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MorenoCALIFORNIA82025
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA82016
JacumbaCALIFORNIA72025
Anza 2CALIFORNIA52025
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA42022
San YsidroCALIFORNIA32019
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA32025
AnzaCALIFORNIA32003
VentucopaCALIFORNIA32001
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA32025
AthloneCALIFORNIA31976
South LakeCALIFORNIA32006
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA22025
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA22024
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA22018
Cp. PendletonCALIFORNIA22004
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA22023
SangerCALIFORNIA22019
ArvinCALIFORNIA22018
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA22022
TracyCALIFORNIA22006
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA22024
HughsonCALIFORNIA11981
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA11995
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.