BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has risen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Say's Phoebe In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.84–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.84–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.822.1
20271.50.832.1
20281.50.832.1
20291.50.842.1
20301.50.842.1

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO92022
KirkCOLORADO82023
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO81997
KimballNEBRASKA82025
ChugwaterWYOMING82024
Last Chance 2COLORADO72025
GilpinCOLORADO62025
EdisonCOLORADO62025
PritchettCOLORADO62025
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO62025
Adams Co.COLORADO52022
BethuneCOLORADO52015
BennettCOLORADO52025
RockportCOLORADO52024
Murray LakeNEBRASKA52025
Agate 2NEBRASKA52025
SkellytownTEXAS52024
RushCOLORADO42025
Cone MtnCOLORADO42024
FlaglerCOLORADO42025
AgateNEBRASKA42001
FarleyNEW-MEXICO42025
RatonNEW-MEXICO41994
FeltOKLAHOMA42024
WinkTEXAS41975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.