BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.81–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.81–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.802.1
20261.40.802.1
20271.50.802.1
20281.50.812.1
20291.50.812.1

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ElbertCOLORADO102024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO92022
TrincheraCOLORADO82022
KirkCOLORADO82023
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO81997
ChugwaterWYOMING82024
Last Chance 2COLORADO72024
GilpinCOLORADO62024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO62023
RosebudNEW-MEXICO62024
BriggsdaleCOLORADO52024
RushCOLORADO52024
Adams Co.COLORADO52022
BethuneCOLORADO52015
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO52023
RockportCOLORADO52024
Murray LakeNEBRASKA52024
FarleyNEW-MEXICO52024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA52024
PanhandleTEXAS52024
SkellytownTEXAS52024
CheyenneWYOMING52024
HudsonCOLORADO42024
Kiowa 2COLORADO42024
Cone MtnCOLORADO42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.